Official Statistics
Table 4
Updated 21 May 2013
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| Area flag | Area | Cohort size (combining four quarters of probation caseload data) | Actual rate of reoffending | Predicted rate of reoffending | % difference from baseline | Significant | RelationshipCode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | East Midlands | 50771 | 9.20% | 9.36% | -1.69% | No significant difference | 10 |
| R | East of England | 61210 | 9.27% | 8.97% | 3.42% | Higher than predicted | 11 |
| R | London | 110083 | 8.55% | 8.72% | -1.89% | No significant difference | 12 |
| R | North East | 43165 | 14.32% | 15.00% | -4.53% | Lower than predicted | 13 |
| R | North West | 104344 | 9.92% | 9.97% | -0.48% | No significant difference | 14 |
| R | South East | 74196 | 9.48% | 9.33% | 1.58% | No significant difference | 15 |
| R | South West | 43817 | 9.94% | 9.66% | 2.91% | No significant difference | 16 |
| R | Wales | 43701 | 10.91% | 11.00% | -0.75% | No significant difference | 17 |
| R | West Midlands | 77071 | 7.99% | 9.11% | -12.32% | Lower than predicted | 18 |
| R | Yorkshire and Humberside | 72129 | 10.26% | 11.15% | -8.01% | Lower than predicted | 19 |
| P | Derbyshire | 11669 | 8.55% | 7.79% | 9.76% | Higher than predicted | 10100 |
| P | Leicestershire | 10493 | 7.90% | 8.09% | -2.34% | No significant difference | 10101 |
| P | Lincolnshire | 6148 | 9.74% | 9.50% | 2.53% | No significant difference | 10102 |
| P | Northamptonshire | 7619 | 8.32% | 8.35% | -0.37% | No significant difference | 10103 |
| P | Nottinghamshire | 14842 | 10.85% | 11.94% | -9.11% | Lower than predicted | 10104 |
| P | Bedfordshire | 6258 | 7.97% | 8.02% | -0.63% | No significant difference | 11105 |
| P | Cambridgeshire and Peterborough | 8879 | 10.13% | 10.00% | 1.26% | No significant difference | 11106 |
| P | Essex | 21207 | 8.57% | 8.63% | -0.72% | No significant difference | 11107 |
| P | Hertfordshire | 10604 | 9.10% | 7.95% | 14.52% | Higher than predicted | 11108 |
| P | Norfolk and Suffolk | 14262 | 10.50% | 10.00% | 4.93% | No significant difference | 11109 |
| P | Durham Tees Valley | 20706 | 14.13% | 14.79% | -4.51% | Lower than predicted | 13110 |
| P | Northumbria | 22459 | 14.50% | 15.19% | -4.55% | Lower than predicted | 13111 |
| P | Cheshire | 11150 | 8.80% | 8.94% | -1.55% | No significant difference | 14112 |
| P | Cumbria | 6058 | 11.65% | 12.41% | -6.13% | No significant difference | 14113 |
| P | Greater Manchester | 42577 | 9.36% | 9.87% | -5.17% | Lower than predicted | 14114 |
| P | Lancashire | 21427 | 11.16% | 10.99% | 1.58% | No significant difference | 14115 |
| P | Merseyside | 23132 | 9.91% | 9.08% | 9.12% | Higher than predicted | 14116 |
| P | Hampshire | 19353 | 10.47% | 10.58% | -1.07% | No significant difference | 15117 |
| P | Kent | 16224 | 9.57% | 8.70% | 9.97% | Higher than predicted | 15118 |
| P | Surrey and Sussex | 20081 | 8.87% | 8.68% | 2.19% | No significant difference | 15119 |
| P | Thames Valley | 18538 | 9.01% | 9.27% | -2.77% | No significant difference | 15120 |
| P | Avon and Somerset | 16232 | 10.05% | 9.87% | 1.85% | No significant difference | 16121 |
| P | Devon and Cornwall | 11319 | 9.54% | 9.07% | 5.24% | No significant difference | 16122 |
| P | Dorset | 5776 | 9.82% | 9.90% | -0.86% | No significant difference | 16123 |
| P | Gloucestershire | 5506 | 10.30% | 10.43% | -1.25% | No significant difference | 16124 |
| P | Wiltshire | 4984 | 10.27% | 9.23% | 11.25% | Higher than predicted | 16125 |
| P | Staffordshire and West Midlands | 60156 | 7.61% | 8.87% | -14.22% | Lower than predicted | 18126 |
| P | Warwickshire | 5242 | 9.37% | 10.31% | -9.16% | Lower than predicted | 18127 |
| P | West Mercia | 11673 | 9.35% | 9.84% | -4.97% | No significant difference | 18128 |
| P | Humberside | 11908 | 10.38% | 10.58% | -1.85% | No significant difference | 19129 |
| P | York and North Yorkshire | 6997 | 11.29% | 11.18% | 0.98% | No significant difference | 19130 |
| P | South Yorkshire | 18814 | 10.34% | 11.84% | -12.64% | Lower than predicted | 19131 |
| P | West Yorkshire | 34410 | 9.96% | 10.97% | -9.19% | Lower than predicted | 19132 |
| P | London | 110083 | 8.55% | 8.72% | -1.89% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| P | Wales | 43701 | 10.91% | 11.00% | -0.75% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| P | Unknown Probation Area | 3053 | 10.06% | 11.40% | -11.82% | Lower than predicted | 20135 |
| L | Derby | 3815 | 8.10% | 7.86% | 2.99% | No significant difference | 10100 |
| L | Derbyshire | 7773 | 8.71% | 7.71% | 12.94% | Higher than predicted | 10100 |
| L | Leicester | 5551 | 8.21% | 8.37% | -1.87% | No significant difference | 10101 |
| L | Leicestershire | 4758 | 7.76% | 7.87% | -1.46% | No significant difference | 10101 |
| L | Rutland | 181 | 4.42% | 5.23% | -15.53% | No significant difference | 10101 |
| L | Lincolnshire | 6144 | 9.64% | 9.48% | 1.59% | No significant difference | 10102 |
| L | Northamptonshire | 7623 | 8.28% | 8.35% | -0.93% | No significant difference | 10103 |
| L | Nottingham | 6640 | 10.96% | 12.25% | -10.47% | Lower than predicted | 10104 |
| L | Nottinghamshire | 8083 | 10.60% | 11.67% | -9.11% | Lower than predicted | 10104 |
| L | Bedford | 1972 | 8.67% | 8.38% | 3.49% | No significant difference | 11105 |
| L | Central Bedfordshire | 1573 | 6.74% | 7.43% | -9.35% | No significant difference | 11105 |
| L | Luton | 2806 | 8.23% | 8.19% | 0.46% | No significant difference | 11105 |
| L | Cambridgeshire | 5503 | 9.61% | 9.49% | 1.34% | No significant difference | 11106 |
| L | Peterborough | 3253 | 10.30% | 10.65% | -3.28% | No significant difference | 11106 |
| L | Essex | 15542 | 8.71% | 8.49% | 2.51% | No significant difference | 11107 |
| L | Southend-on-Sea | 2914 | 8.44% | 9.22% | -8.48% | No significant difference | 11107 |
| L | Thurrock | 2470 | 8.26% | 8.96% | -7.85% | No significant difference | 11107 |
| L | Hertfordshire | 10252 | 9.16% | 8.01% | 14.32% | Higher than predicted | 11108 |
| L | Norfolk | 7667 | 10.51% | 10.54% | -0.26% | No significant difference | 11109 |
| L | Suffolk | 6517 | 10.45% | 9.48% | 10.19% | Higher than predicted | 11109 |
| L | Barking and Dagenham | 3033 | 8.24% | 9.20% | -10.38% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Barnet | 2983 | 7.78% | 7.59% | 2.48% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Bexley | 2384 | 7.89% | 7.76% | 1.65% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Brent | 4033 | 8.63% | 8.09% | 6.72% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Bromley | 3232 | 8.17% | 8.22% | -0.69% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Camden | 2581 | 10.89% | 10.54% | 3.31% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | City of London | 44 | 2.27% | 9.99% | -77.25% | Lower than predicted | 12133 |
| L | Croydon | 5718 | 9.36% | 8.89% | 5.26% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Ealing | 4150 | 8.00% | 7.55% | 5.95% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Enfield | 3867 | 7.21% | 7.82% | -7.78% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Greenwich | 4455 | 8.26% | 9.41% | -12.20% | Lower than predicted | 12133 |
| L | Hackney | 4511 | 7.85% | 8.85% | -11.33% | Lower than predicted | 12133 |
| L | Hammersmith and Fulham | 2752 | 10.57% | 9.76% | 8.39% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Haringey | 4593 | 8.30% | 8.68% | -4.43% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Harrow | 1880 | 7.55% | 7.83% | -3.53% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Havering | 2229 | 7.00% | 8.28% | -15.43% | Lower than predicted | 12133 |
| L | Hillingdon | 3018 | 7.95% | 7.92% | 0.36% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Hounslow | 3490 | 9.60% | 9.02% | 6.43% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Islington | 3402 | 10.52% | 9.73% | 8.17% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Kensington and Chelsea | 1395 | 9.82% | 9.77% | 0.52% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Kingston upon Thames | 1127 | 8.43% | 9.30% | -9.37% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Lambeth | 5633 | 8.13% | 8.83% | -7.88% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Lewisham | 5635 | 8.55% | 8.74% | -2.13% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Merton | 1971 | 8.27% | 8.53% | -3.04% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Newham | 5751 | 8.83% | 8.70% | 1.55% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Redbridge | 2921 | 8.39% | 8.09% | 3.67% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Richmond upon Thames | 1142 | 9.11% | 8.33% | 9.32% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Southwark | 5298 | 7.61% | 8.70% | -12.55% | Lower than predicted | 12133 |
| L | Sutton | 2048 | 7.81% | 8.91% | -12.35% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Tower Hamlets | 4206 | 9.53% | 9.63% | -0.95% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Waltham Forest | 3647 | 7.81% | 8.40% | -6.96% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Wandsworth | 3098 | 8.42% | 9.03% | -6.73% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Westminster | 1951 | 9.07% | 9.73% | -6.76% | No significant difference | 12133 |
| L | Darlington | 1927 | 14.22% | 13.82% | 2.88% | No significant difference | 13110 |
| L | Durham | 6638 | 11.93% | 12.59% | -5.26% | No significant difference | 13110 |
| L | Hartlepool | 2098 | 19.21% | 18.36% | 4.64% | No significant difference | 13110 |
| L | Middlesbrough | 3973 | 16.03% | 16.92% | -5.26% | No significant difference | 13110 |
| L | Redcar and Cleveland | 2739 | 13.29% | 14.51% | -8.44% | No significant difference | 13110 |
| L | Stockton-on-Tees | 3247 | 13.09% | 15.05% | -13.04% | Lower than predicted | 13110 |
| L | Gateshead | 3402 | 13.26% | 13.82% | -4.11% | No significant difference | 13111 |
| L | Newcastle-upon-Tyne | 5475 | 16.75% | 17.05% | -1.74% | No significant difference | 13111 |
| L | North Tyneside | 2898 | 14.53% | 15.74% | -7.71% | No significant difference | 13111 |
| L | Northumberland | 3461 | 10.86% | 12.54% | -13.38% | Lower than predicted | 13111 |
| L | South Tyneside | 2282 | 13.41% | 14.50% | -7.50% | No significant difference | 13111 |
| L | Sunderland | 4899 | 15.86% | 15.80% | 0.40% | No significant difference | 13111 |
| L | Cheshire East | 3111 | 7.55% | 8.58% | -12.01% | Lower than predicted | 14112 |
| L | Cheshire West and Chester | 3785 | 8.93% | 9.20% | -2.90% | No significant difference | 14112 |
| L | Halton | 1976 | 9.77% | 8.37% | 16.66% | Higher than predicted | 14112 |
| L | Warrington | 2342 | 9.35% | 9.52% | -1.73% | No significant difference | 14112 |
| L | Cumbria | 6028 | 11.66% | 12.41% | -6.03% | No significant difference | 14113 |
| L | Bolton | 3961 | 10.12% | 10.37% | -2.37% | No significant difference | 14114 |
| L | Bury | 2751 | 8.07% | 8.86% | -8.90% | No significant difference | 14114 |
| L | Manchester | 11360 | 9.71% | 10.40% | -6.66% | Lower than predicted | 14114 |
| L | Oldham | 3415 | 8.61% | 9.58% | -10.09% | No significant difference | 14114 |
| L | Rochdale | 3806 | 8.41% | 9.94% | -15.44% | Lower than predicted | 14114 |
| L | Salford | 4574 | 9.62% | 9.95% | -3.36% | No significant difference | 14114 |
| L | Stockport | 3104 | 9.95% | 9.75% | 2.10% | No significant difference | 14114 |
| L | Tameside | 3123 | 10.60% | 10.25% | 3.43% | No significant difference | 14114 |
| L | Trafford | 2317 | 8.20% | 8.99% | -8.74% | No significant difference | 14114 |
| L | Wigan | 3982 | 8.97% | 8.78% | 2.17% | No significant difference | 14114 |
| L | Blackburn with Darwen | 3001 | 10.90% | 10.52% | 3.58% | No significant difference | 14115 |
| L | Blackpool | 3953 | 10.19% | 10.74% | -5.10% | No significant difference | 14115 |
| L | Lancashire | 14543 | 11.40% | 11.15% | 2.24% | No significant difference | 14115 |
| L | Knowsley | 2616 | 9.02% | 8.34% | 8.20% | No significant difference | 14116 |
| L | Liverpool | 10072 | 9.65% | 9.14% | 5.58% | No significant difference | 14116 |
| L | St Helens | 2573 | 10.22% | 9.48% | 7.88% | No significant difference | 14116 |
| L | Sefton | 3007 | 9.01% | 8.75% | 2.96% | No significant difference | 14116 |
| L | Wirral | 4776 | 11.66% | 9.55% | 22.10% | Higher than predicted | 14116 |
| L | Hampshire | 10476 | 9.69% | 9.98% | -2.96% | No significant difference | 15117 |
| L | Isle of Wight | 1604 | 11.72% | 10.43% | 12.41% | No significant difference | 15117 |
| L | Portsmouth | 2782 | 13.87% | 12.76% | 8.78% | No significant difference | 15117 |
| L | Southampton | 4316 | 9.89% | 10.71% | -7.62% | No significant difference | 15117 |
| L | Kent | 13288 | 9.41% | 8.67% | 8.64% | Higher than predicted | 15118 |
| L | Medway | 2880 | 10.28% | 9.02% | 13.93% | Higher than predicted | 15118 |
| L | Brighton and Hove | 3195 | 8.54% | 8.71% | -1.86% | No significant difference | 15119 |
| L | East Sussex | 4410 | 8.80% | 8.51% | 3.33% | No significant difference | 15119 |
| L | Surrey | 6373 | 9.13% | 8.87% | 2.93% | No significant difference | 15119 |
| L | West Sussex | 6185 | 8.78% | 8.55% | 2.73% | No significant difference | 15119 |
| L | Bracknell Forest | 864 | 8.22% | 9.38% | -12.43% | No significant difference | 15120 |
| L | Buckinghamshire | 3295 | 8.10% | 8.38% | -3.26% | No significant difference | 15120 |
| L | Milton Keynes | 2568 | 10.12% | 9.59% | 5.59% | No significant difference | 15120 |
| L | Oxfordshire | 4378 | 9.62% | 10.27% | -6.34% | No significant difference | 15120 |
| L | Reading | 2109 | 9.10% | 9.39% | -3.00% | No significant difference | 15120 |
| L | Slough | 2472 | 8.29% | 8.77% | -5.42% | No significant difference | 15120 |
| L | West Berkshire | 1003 | 10.07% | 9.65% | 4.32% | No significant difference | 15120 |
| L | Windsor and Maidenhead | 1087 | 8.00% | 8.60% | -6.90% | No significant difference | 15120 |
| L | Wokingham | 716 | 7.40% | 7.68% | -3.61% | No significant difference | 15120 |
| L | Bath and North East Somerset | 1361 | 8.89% | 9.33% | -4.76% | No significant difference | 16121 |
| L | City of Bristol | 6960 | 11.61% | 11.01% | 5.48% | No significant difference | 16121 |
| L | North Somerset | 1966 | 9.00% | 9.48% | -5.05% | No significant difference | 16121 |
| L | Somerset | 3843 | 9.86% | 9.38% | 5.11% | No significant difference | 16121 |
| L | South Gloucestershire | 1882 | 7.70% | 7.72% | -0.16% | No significant difference | 16121 |
| L | Cornwall | 2244 | 7.75% | 7.79% | -0.51% | No significant difference | 16122 |
| L | Devon | 3559 | 9.78% | 9.25% | 5.67% | No significant difference | 16122 |
| L | Isles of Scilly | 3 | 0.00% | 4.63% | -100.00% | Lower than predicted | 16122 |
| L | Plymouth | 3890 | 10.28% | 9.43% | 9.01% | No significant difference | 16122 |
| L | Torbay | 1333 | 9.23% | 9.68% | -4.63% | No significant difference | 16122 |
| L | Bournemouth | 2546 | 10.72% | 10.69% | 0.34% | No significant difference | 16123 |
| L | Dorset | 2083 | 8.40% | 9.01% | -6.76% | No significant difference | 16123 |
| L | Poole | 1206 | 10.28% | 9.78% | 5.13% | No significant difference | 16123 |
| L | Gloucestershire | 5542 | 10.29% | 10.44% | -1.52% | No significant difference | 16124 |
| L | Swindon | 1734 | 10.27% | 9.40% | 9.26% | No significant difference | 16125 |
| L | Wiltshire | 3118 | 10.10% | 9.04% | 11.73% | No significant difference | 16125 |
| L | Blaenau Gwent | 1051 | 8.94% | 10.31% | -13.28% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Bridgend | 1996 | 10.87% | 10.40% | 4.55% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Caerphilly | 2441 | 8.15% | 9.89% | -17.58% | Lower than predicted | 17134 |
| L | Cardiff | 6242 | 11.18% | 12.25% | -8.75% | Lower than predicted | 17134 |
| L | Carmarthenshire | 2099 | 12.43% | 10.41% | 19.47% | Higher than predicted | 17134 |
| L | Ceredigion | 643 | 7.93% | 8.61% | -7.87% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Conwy | 1333 | 10.28% | 10.80% | -4.85% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Denbighshire | 1327 | 9.87% | 10.18% | -3.02% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Flintshire | 1886 | 7.90% | 8.85% | -10.73% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Gwynedd | 1599 | 12.20% | 11.46% | 6.40% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Isle of Anglesey | 800 | 11.75% | 10.72% | 9.58% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Merthyr Tydfil | 1223 | 10.96% | 11.45% | -4.29% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Monmouthshire | 629 | 13.20% | 11.04% | 19.51% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Neath Port Talbot | 1993 | 10.39% | 9.59% | 8.35% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Newport | 2846 | 12.83% | 12.81% | 0.14% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Pembrokeshire | 1161 | 11.37% | 11.40% | -0.25% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Powys | 1113 | 10.96% | 10.56% | 3.84% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Rhondda, Cynon, Taff | 3951 | 9.62% | 9.80% | -1.86% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Swansea | 3837 | 11.62% | 11.69% | -0.59% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | The Vale of Glamorgan | 1801 | 11.16% | 11.85% | -5.79% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Torfaen | 1108 | 9.12% | 10.73% | -15.01% | No significant difference | 17134 |
| L | Wrexham | 2428 | 14.21% | 11.96% | 18.77% | Higher than predicted | 17134 |
| L | Birmingham | 23061 | 7.35% | 8.72% | -15.76% | Lower than predicted | 18126 |
| L | Coventry | 5655 | 8.05% | 9.25% | -13.05% | Lower than predicted | 18126 |
| L | Dudley | 3453 | 8.34% | 8.98% | -7.15% | No significant difference | 18126 |
| L | Sandwell | 5163 | 7.15% | 8.36% | -14.50% | Lower than predicted | 18126 |
| L | Solihull | 2239 | 6.48% | 7.97% | -18.78% | Lower than predicted | 18126 |
| L | Staffordshire | 7580 | 5.96% | 7.92% | -24.75% | Lower than predicted | 18126 |
| L | Stoke-on-Trent | 4518 | 9.27% | 10.28% | -9.80% | Lower than predicted | 18126 |
| L | Walsall | 3850 | 9.19% | 10.18% | -9.67% | No significant difference | 18126 |
| L | Wolverhampton | 4135 | 8.39% | 9.05% | -7.27% | No significant difference | 18126 |
| L | Warwickshire | 5169 | 9.32% | 10.27% | -9.21% | Lower than predicted | 18127 |
| L | Herefordshire | 1692 | 11.17% | 10.78% | 3.58% | No significant difference | 18128 |
| L | Shropshire | 2160 | 8.38% | 9.61% | -12.78% | No significant difference | 18128 |
| L | Telford and Wrekin | 1911 | 8.22% | 9.18% | -10.49% | No significant difference | 18128 |
| L | Worcestershire | 5902 | 9.47% | 9.80% | -3.38% | No significant difference | 18128 |
| L | East Riding of Yorkshire | 2033 | 8.46% | 8.60% | -1.63% | No significant difference | 19129 |
| L | City of Kingston upon Hull | 4913 | 10.89% | 10.69% | 1.85% | No significant difference | 19129 |
| L | North East Lincolnshire | 2680 | 11.68% | 12.41% | -5.89% | No significant difference | 19129 |
| L | North Lincolnshire | 2293 | 9.33% | 9.88% | -5.50% | No significant difference | 19129 |
| L | North Yorkshire | 4821 | 10.68% | 10.74% | -0.51% | No significant difference | 19130 |
| L | York | 2089 | 12.73% | 12.46% | 2.23% | No significant difference | 19130 |
| L | Barnsley | 3425 | 9.69% | 12.05% | -19.59% | Lower than predicted | 19131 |
| L | Doncaster | 4560 | 11.27% | 12.22% | -7.78% | No significant difference | 19131 |
| L | Rotherham | 3548 | 10.06% | 11.52% | -12.63% | Lower than predicted | 19131 |
| L | Sheffield | 7025 | 10.04% | 11.53% | -12.93% | Lower than predicted | 19131 |
| L | Bradford | 8793 | 9.04% | 10.59% | -14.59% | Lower than predicted | 19132 |
| L | Calderdale | 2761 | 8.73% | 10.54% | -17.17% | Lower than predicted | 19132 |
| L | Kirklees | 5506 | 10.19% | 10.78% | -5.50% | No significant difference | 19132 |
| L | Leeds | 12665 | 10.59% | 11.44% | -7.45% | Lower than predicted | 19132 |
| L | Wakefield | 4502 | 10.51% | 10.81% | -2.77% | No significant difference | 19132 |
| L | Unknown local authority | 8230 | 11.08% | 10.27% | 7.54% | Higher than predicted | 20135 |